It was eight weeks in the past when the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him for missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. After the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six games, are somehow a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
According to Opta, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a side that have strung together ten consecutive victories, they seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with rivals and then rely on their star man to rescue them with two crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club have to face in the near future. Rogers, surely, will not continue to blasting the football into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital England player.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
